Matters of Policy & Politics

Wednesday, October 16, 2024 - 56 min listen
Hoover Institution | Stanford University

Like a storm headed to America’s shores, the November forecast calls for the sound and fury of a contentious election that challenges the public’s trust in democracy. Ben Ginsberg, the Hoover Institution’s Volker Distinguished Visiting Fellow is a preeminent authority on election law. Ginsberg revives his Saints, Sinners And Salvageables podcast series from two years ago with this kickoff installment examining whether battleground states are better prepared this election cycle than in recent election cycles, plus Ginsberg explores possible legal challenges that might happen before, during, and after the vote-count. 

Recorded on October 14, 2024.

Why did the “best and brightest” of the Kennedy and Johnson administrations continue with a flawed Vietnam strategy despite years of wargaming simulations warning that there were no good outcomes for American involvement? Jacquelyn Schneider, the Hoover Institution’s Hargrove Hoover Fellow and director of Hoover’s Wargaming and Crisis Simulation Initiative, discusses the role of the 1960’s “SIGMA Games” in deciding Southeast Asia options, how wargaming influenced America Cold War strategy, its use in making sense of present-day enigmas (China, Russia), plus the challenges in playing out scenarios in the “final frontier” that is outer space.

Who are the winners and losers now that California Governor Gavin Newsom has signed off on hundreds of legislative bills? Hoover senior fellow Lee Ohanian and distinguished policy fellow Bill Whalen, both contributors to Hoover’s California on Your Mind web channel, join Hoover senior product manager Jonathan Movroydis to discuss why the past month in Sacramento was good news for teen-abuse victim Paris Hilton (Newsom signed a bill she championed) and Los Angeles Clipper’s owner Steve Ballmer (his new arena received a late-night alcohol exception); and bad news for Elon Musk (he didn’t get his way on a controversial AI measure as his social-media feud with the governor continues). Possibly the worst news is for Californians fond of direct democracy and election integrity (Newsom vetoed a voter ID requirement). Then, the legislature approved a constitutional amendment altering California’s recall process which voters will decide on in 2026.

Is the current presidential election lining up along the same lines as the past two Trump referenda with a small number of swing states and an even smaller subset of issues (in 2024: jobs, inflation, immigration, and wars) deciding who will become America’s 47th president?

David Brady and Douglas Rivers, Hoover Institution senior fellows and managers of a tracking poll on the US electorate, discuss what’s different in a contest featuring known (Donald Trump) and lesser known (Kamala Harris) entities, what matters most to independent voters, the odds of one or both chambers of Congress flipping, plus whether Pennsylvania is the “new Florida” as ground zero for deciding presidential outcomes.  

Since the founding of the republic, America’s leaders have pondered the question of federalism and the proper divide between national and local government regarding such thorny matters as infrastructure, healthcare financing, and education. Michael Boskin, the Hoover Institution’s Wohlford Family Senior Fellow and former chair of the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers, discusses American Federalism Today: Perspectives on Political and Economic Governance, a newly released book he edited based on the findings from a November 2023 Hoover conference on federalism. Boskin explains the urgent need for policy reforms (government waste in particular), plus what makes for effective government commissions (Boskin chaired a federal commission on the Consumer Price Index in the mid-1990’s).

The Democratic National Convention turns out to be a tale of two Californians – Vice President Kamala Harris becoming her party’s standard-bearer; Governor Gavin Newsom left out of the speakers’ lineup (other than a two-minute cameo during the roll-call vote).

Hoover senior fellow Lee Ohanian and distinguished policy fellow Bill Whalen, both contributors to Hoover’s California on Your Mind web channel, join Hoover senior product manager Jonathan Movroydis to discuss in the Golden State including Harris and Newsom’s reversals of fortune, the Golden State’s struggles with job-retention, plus whether a Harris presidency can succeed where a Newsom governorship seems destined to fail (she wants to build three million new homes nationally in her first term; Newsom is far behind on his downsized goal of 2.5 million new California homes by the decade’s end).

As Kamala Harris attempts to succeed where fellow Californian Richard Nixon fell short in 1960 – win the White House as a sitting vice president amidst a complicated economy – she takes a page from the Nixon presidency and wades into what government can do about the high cost of goods and services (specifically, food prices). Economist David Henderson, a Hoover Institution fellow and a I Blog to Differ commentator, explains what Nixon attempted a half-century ago and what Harris suggested in her pre-convention economics address. Henderson also explains the difference between price controls and curbing price-gouging plus the economic consequences of the federal government imposing its will on the free market.

For the past two weeks, after Hezbollah rockets struck a Golan Heights town and Israel forces retaliated with strikes on targets in Beirut and Tehran, the world is bracing for further violence in the Middle East, fearing the conflict will escalate into a regional war. Meanwhile, the Biden Administration presses for a cease-fire agreement in Gaza.

Hoover Institution fellow Cole Bunzel, who studies history and contemporary affairs of the Islamic Middle East, makes sense of Iran’s retaliatory timeline, discusses Israel’s options both militarily and diplomatically, and notes that a lame-duck American president (again) is trying to broker a Middle East peace arrangement amidst an election year; plus the prospects of a “mega” deal involving a US-Saudi bilateral treaty, Saudi-Israeli normalization, and possibly a road to Palestinian statehood.

On August 10, celebrants will gather in West Branch, Iowa – Herbert Hoover’s birthplace, resting place, and home to his presidential library and museum – to celebrate the great man’s 150^th birthday. Hoover biographer George Nash, who’ll be part of a panel discussion that day, discusses a remarkable 90-year life journey that took America’s future president from a nascent Stanford University to international mining ventures, to famine relief in Western Europe and the Soviet Union, and a post-presidency devoted to political philosophy and a “crusade against collectivism.” Nash also discusses Hoover’s sometimes complicated relationship with seven American presidents over the last 50 years of his life – and, along the way, finding time to establish an institution that bears his surname.

For the first time in 40 years, a Californian is set to become a major party’s presidential nominee. Meanwhile, governor Gavin Newsom issues an order to remove homeless encampments from city streets and continues to push back against critics of California’s $20 minimum wage for fast-food workers who claim that the new standard is a job-killer. Hoover senior fellow Lee Ohanian and distinguished policy fellow Bill Whalen, both contributors to Hoover’s California on Your Mind web channel, discuss the Golden State including why vice president Kamala Harris’ ascent to the top of the Democratic presidential ticket upsets the political order in her home state (would Newsom accept a cabinet post should she win?), plus upcoming milestones for two US presidents with California ties – the 50^th anniversary of Richard Nixon’s White House resignation and Herbert Hoover’s 150^th birthday.